Tory guilt exposed by analysis of real death figures
The UK has the worst rate of deaths per million of its population in the world, when the likely real number of deaths in and out of hospital are included.
The latest (as of the morning of 30 April) ‘Worldometer’ live chart ranking deaths per million of the population shows the UK in fifth position, with 384 deaths per million of population:
However, it is widely recognised that the UK’s official death toll is far below the real figure, because deaths in care homes will represent half of all UK deaths. Even though the government has started to include some care home deaths in its numbers, the ‘lag’ in reporting them means that around 15 days of care-home deaths are not included.
Taking the cautious Financial Times analysis, which concludes that around 48,000 people have died of the virus in the UK, the table looks very different – with the UK leaping into second place, behind only tiny San Marino, with more than 700 deaths per million:
San Marino has a handful of cases and a tiny number of deaths, but its small population of just 34,000 or so inflates its per million figure.
Note that the USA, which has the highest number of total deaths, does not appear anywhere in the ‘top’ ten in the list. The UK is far, far ahead of the Trump-blighted US in the rate at which the government’s handling of the crisis is killing its citizens.
But in reality, the number of UK deaths so far is likely to be considerably higher. In most countries that measure deaths in care homes – which includes Italy, Spain and France, so their non-hospital deaths are included in the figures above – deaths in care homes represent around half of the total. That’s far higher than the government’s ‘lagged’ figures.
On top of that, hospitals have said that their coronavirus deaths are being under-reported in the government’s figures – with whistleblowers saying only half of the deaths are being counted as coronavirus victims.
Adjusting even cautiously for those facts, the UK has easily suffered 65,000 or more deaths so far. And that leaves the UK still in second place behind tiny San Marino – but very nearly 50% higher than Belgium in 3rd place and 85% higher than France in fourth place – on almost 1,000 deaths per million:
Even on the government figures, the UK occupies a shameful place in the table. The Tories had weeks longer to prepare for the pandemic than Spain, Italy or France – yet they have taken this country into far worse territory.
Territory that means tens of thousands of needless UK deaths.
But in reality, the UK is the second-worst in the world – and by far the worst major nation – in terms of deaths among its people caused by the virus.
The government and its supporters try to claim that ‘some countries’ measure in different ways, or have different geographies or population densities. But the UK is worse than every country in the world of any geography, any population density and any measurement system. Apart from tiny San Marino.
Boris Johnson and his government – through their ‘herd immunity’ insanity; their PPE failures; the insanity of sending C-positive old folk back to care homes; their rejection of the World Health Organisation ‘test and trace’ plan that saw South Korea eliminate the virus without a lock-down; their decision to allow sporting events to continue when experts were screaming warnings and their policy of allowing travellers from virus hotspots to enter the country with no checks – are responsible for mass fatalities.
Fatalies that other countries have shown can be avoided. Among your relatives, friends and colleagues.
And they are not finished yet.
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These conservative deaths are along the lines i expect other than the USA figures. It will be a surprise if San Francisco, LA and Seattle, NY, Baltimore, New Orleans and Florida do not see significant deaths in the next few months.
ps, Do expect the UK to be in the top 3 re per capita deaths due to the original policy decision of “herd immunity” ie allow at least 200,000 poor, old, disabled, ie vulnerable die so as to reduce state spending on them and insurance companies having larger dividends instead of paying whats due to elderly clients etc. By saying one thing yet doing the other, the gov’t intention was – mislead the public then claim critics are using the benefit of hindsight.
I would expect the UK to rank high on this list, but I’d question the rather simplistic assumption that there are no similar underestimates elsewhere. Do the Italian figures, for instance, include deaths in care homes? The Pio Albergo Trivulzio (in Milan) for example had more than 100 deaths of residents.
It says in this skwawkbox article Italy includes care home figures
Hospital-only figures are useful for tracking CV’s progress because they’re the most consistent and reliable data available – that dataset should be maintained separately for that purpose. That’s a given.
Reporting care home and all other unconfirmed CV deaths outside hospitals separately with the proviso that those numbers were subject to revision would have been the honest approach, and perfectly possible.
Government ministers that make honest mistakes, come clean and offer their resignations can be forgiven – but there can be no forgiveness for those who’ve caused thousands of unnecessary deaths by their negligence and incompetence – and then spent all their time lying and scheming to conceal facts, deflect blame, protect themselves from criticism and remain in office – rather than DOING THEIR FUCKING JOBS.
The Italian figures include deaths is Care Homes. It is acknowledge that around 52% of the Italian figures come from deaths in Care Homes and 57% of Spanish figures are from deaths in Care Homes too, similar numbers are included in France’s figures..
In Spain the figures between regions are very interested with the Autonomous Community of Madrid, running at around 15% deaths and the other autonomous regions of Spain around 8%-9% deaths. Have a guess, Madrid’s autonomous Community government is in the hands of the PP (tory equivalent)
Hi Allan Harrison, the UK is one of the few countries to:
1️⃣ Exclude fatalities outside of hospital.
2️⃣ Deny tests even to symptomatic IN & outside hospital.
3️⃣ Block admissions of obviously symptomatic people.
4️⃣ Block the use of existing testing capacity in hospitals.
5️⃣ Outsource testing to private companies FAR AWAY from hospitals where we have been testing for a multitude of infections for a million years.
5️⃣ Privatising testing, introducing unnecessary complication eg not posting swabs out to the public in general, and self-isolating healthcare staff in particular.
6️⃣ Attempt to present spun figures despite the political choices above.
Here’s hoping, this disabuses you of any idea of “rather simplistic assumption” on skwawkbox.org the world already has the MSM for that.🌹🌹🌹
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000hr18/newsnight-30042020
(10 mins in)
Newsnight presenter – ‘Let me just bring you back to what you said, – ten years ago it would have been an easier task to fulfill that task for 18,000 people to be contact tracing, why isn’t it now, what’s changed?’
Proffesor Gabriel Scally, Public health, Uniersity Bristol – ‘We don’t have that government any more at regional level, we don’t have the health srtucture now at regional level, the health structures such as they are at local level are no longer having the same boundries as the local authorities, local authorities have been greatly deminished, the public health bodies have been greatly deminished…..’
Newsnight presenter – ‘Your talking about cuts there arn’t you? ‘
Proffesor Gabriel Scally, Public health, Uniersity Bristol – ‘Oh yes, absolutely, and envoronment health officials who are really experienced in contact tracing and do it for food poisoning outbreaks and so on, their numbers have been diminished.’
At one point the professor tells David Gaulk he’s talking nonsense
Oh, and it was mentioned earlier on Newsnight that deaths at home are uo 100%!
Up 100%, ‘people are staying home, and dying at home’
Covid 19…..’The London Virus’.?
Decisions made in London, about London, by London MPs No Testing; No Tracing & Quarantine because the shambles of inaction for months meant the gov’t eventually realised it would be too difficult ………..in London.
Huge areas of GB are still relatively free of Covid 19. Areas such as Cornwall & Devon could easily have been isolated & a controlled environment created. Testing; Tracing & Isolating was not only possible, but immediately desirable…….but not in London.
Thanks. Whoops! I missed the ref to the Italian and Spanish figured including care homes. The Pio Albergo Trivulzio case should have been a wake-up call to the IK gov’t.
Anyone know how many of these nightingale beds are currently in use?
Check posts a few days ago. Birmingham after ten days opening was completely unused. 500 beds. Excel treated max 46ish last week and 26 the week before. 3,500 beds. Some of the other five Nightingale hospitals, iv learnt, may never even open. Methinks they were always meant for show. EVIDENCE❓ Neither staff nor equipment for even 1.5% of the thousands of beds‼️ Think of that. Over 4,000 Nightingale beds nationally, yet around one and a half percent properly staffed and equipped. LESSON: Always be suspicious of grand political announcements, openings and as yesterday special spun VIDEO PR package with LOOP hypnotic MUSIC. Weeks before the Panorama tissue of slander and lies re AS, at the end of usual BBC5Live late night propaganda, they broadcast an audio test run of people accusing Jeremy of AS which of course is a pack of wicked evil lies. But yesterday’s johnson video during the press confr reminded me. The individuals were making their claims, without evidence, lots emotion … tons. It sounded false and theatrical to me. But there was the same music played throughout. Tell me, there are dreadful heartbreaking evidence presented at court trials. Has anyone EVER heard loop music or any music played while evidence was being presented❓❓❓ Who else used music and film like that some decades ago❓❓❓ That method is only used by the most sinister outfits. Propagandist. The irony is stunning.
Rushing, but if u find out Nightingale numbers b4 i post, do broadcast. Oh also Toffee, orders & criteria from non clinical high change by the day sometimes WITHIN 24hrs. They change according to POLITICAL CONSIDERATIONS, rather than clinical health preserving thinking.🌹🌹🌹
Thanks, signposts… In essence the privateers are being paid for beds that the government is deliberately not making use of.
And the vast majority of MPs from across the political spectrum own shares in, or work on behalf of, private healthcare…
More wish-fulfilment reporting.
The deaths attributable to Covid-19 are unreliable across the board – and that cuts both ways and across all countries.
So the FT story is pure speculation. Interesting how Skwawkbox is suddenly citing MSM sources as wells of truth in its pursuit of wishing people dead by this virus.
All-cause mortality figures are the only reasonable indication of scale, which gives an indirect insight into the nature of the epidemic. They always lag, and at the last publication showed the UK cumulative total about 4% above the peak of 2017/18. Which is a very high epidemic figure – but not the highest. Where the trend line goes is currently a matter of speculation – and one possibility is that it will dip down below the higher level again. But we don’t know.
CEBM analysis for reported Covid-19 *presence* show the country on the back end of a very typical epidemic curve.
It’s clear that the UK has a high incidence of Covid-19 deaths – but trying to attribute that fact solely to government is pretty dim, given even a cursory glance at world data. It takes focus away from real government failings over health that don’t need fiction and exaggeration.
Above all, it obfuscates the real questions about this virus and its incidence.
And one key issue is the unsurprising one (although reported in the MSM, it’s data rather than speculation, so can be checked) :
“Deprived areas have double death rates of affluent”
Now that *is* a political issue, even if it’s not a new one.
… and it’s ironic that an old-school Tory like Simon Jenkins comments in a more rounded and perceptive way about the situation more convincingly than Skwawkbox :
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/01/why-can-i-visit-a-diy-shop-but-not-a-museum-this-total-lockdown-is-failing
… and for an insight into why taking FT figures at face value is a pretty dim and irrelevant pastime, David Spiegelhalter is a reliable authority :
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/30/coronavirus-deaths-how-does-britain-compare-with-other-countries
God help me, but I just agreed (somewhat) with an article posted by RH & written by Simon Jenkins in the Guardian, but it doesn’t make Sqwawky wrong..
Sweden is protected by the lockdowns of her neighbours; Finland; Norway & Denmark, whose infection rates are far less severe.
In the British Isles we are experiencing the worst of all possible worlds. Not a complete lockdown, but complete lack of Testing; Tracing & Isolating…..until now. Everything is half-hearted & too late…..however, where is the criticism from the Labour Party?
If you ever seek to prevent your computer being infected by a virus……switch it off until you have serious malware protection in place.,,,,,,,,meanwhile 5 months later.
Steve – The idea that Sweden is ‘protected’ by neighbours is pure speculation – it’s the confirmation bias that bedevils many statements about this virus. The fact is that the only quantitative analysis of stringency measures that I have seen has come up with – to put it cautiously – no relationship with positive outcomes. The authors put it a bit less cautiously : the small relationship shown by the trend line is a negative one – i.e more stringent measures are related to negative outcomes.
What surprises me (genuinely) is that whatever hypothesis you can come up with – apart from the obvious like the idea that there is a steep age gradient to mortality – it is more often the null hypothesis (i.e ‘no relationship’) that remains standing after analysis. This is true of the efficacy of ‘lockdown’ and also – and perhaps more surprisingly – the lack of any overall relationship between testing and mortality.
It is perhaps less surprising when you look at the WHO’s own analysis (I posted the link yesterday) of research into non-pharmaceutical intervention in ‘flu epidemics, which came up with very few certain recommendations.
Coronavirus: President Jair Bolsonaro dismissive as overwhelmed Brazilians dig mass graves
Only small groups of family members are allowed inside the cemetery where more than 13,000 graves are being dug.
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-president-jair-bolsonaro-dismissive-as-overwhelmed-brazilians-dig-mass-graves-11981428
Steven that is FACT: “Sweden is protected by the lockdowns of her neighbours; Finland; Norway & Denmark, whose infection rates are far less severe.” Sweden’s authorities are already admitting error. Their fatalities are very severe compared to Norway, Finland and Denmark. Also, for several years Sweden has been crawling down the same neoliberal cesspit as Cummings, johnson, starmer & wmd blair. Oh heard an MSM presenter say this AM that Starmer makes them long for Jeremy at the dispatch box. They were scathing of Starmer’s dull Dull DULL dirge of dross. Says lots when even a Murdoch outfit realises that Starmer is a rusty dull tool for their aims.
REJOICE 🌹🌹🌹
I see he’s banging the patriotism drum now:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/apr/30/labour-should-not-shy-away-from-patriotism-says-starmer
And Tribune has a piece today accusing him of turning his back on Kashmir:
“By folding to a pressure campaign orchestrated by the far-right BJP government [of India], Keir Starmer’s statement on Kashmir today not only betrayed Labour members – it abandoned a people living under brutal oppression.”
Seems Mr Forensic’s quite the nationalist.
PW, as a rule, always be suspicious when politicians start banging on about patriotism. “Last refuge of scoundrels.”
Always laugh when people toss big graphs and long pointers. While following on radio, not once have they given any substance. Do they assume everyone is entranced by TV? Yet same scoundrels will claim to care about inclusivity and choice.
Scoundrels presented an hysterical video yesterday with music over what is supposed to be an important message. I’v not seen any of the charts or the video, but would be AMAZED if they concerned the tiniest value re actively saving lives.
PW, one of many tasks we have, is to investigate the money in cash or kind changing claws – Directly ➕ INDIRECTLY. Is money going to pots here or abroad??? If Starmer had any use, he would demand the government disclose NOW, ALL individuals or companies involved in anyway re financial and other transactions re this pandemic. Including the unnecessary privatised testing, the planned UNNECESSARY and DANGEROUS App tracing, and the significantly UNUSED “Nightingale” show “hospitals” with almost ZERO appropriately qualified staff and almost ZERO appropriate equipment.
ALL payments however described, to the owners of the field hospital sites. ALL PAYMENTS however disguised to the owners of private hospital commandeered by this dodgy government, and as the Nightingale show hospitals VERY UNDERUSED and UNUSED. 🌹🌹🌹
I despise any form of nationalism & will always question nationalist motives, but then I am often accused of being anti-Semitic because I believe that the State of Israel is a racist endeavour. I am often accused of being racist because I voted Brexit & often describe the white working class as the acceptable villains, demonised by the liberal bourgeoisie; from Soap tropes to Pinewood.
I recently listened to Liverpool University (just B4 Xmas) make a public statement saying that it was now ‘international’ & that it would attract talent from all over the world, especially from China. Predominantly situated between Liverpool districts of L7 & L8 it has recently expanded its buildings empire in a working class environment. Cheap property demolished for the benefit of a private educational establishment, while turning its back on the local population (in much the same way as Paul McCartney’s Fame School).
I retired 6 years ago & taught ‘communications’ @ a local FE College; mainly on ‘access’ courses for students who needed to improve their grades for entry into university. Local working class students, who despite dramatically improving their grades, had problems obtaining a place in their local HE University. My criticism was described as ‘localist’ & ‘racist’.
I am often accused of being racist because I believe.that social mobility is a class issue & the white working class suffer most.from discrimination as our culture is constantly ridiculed & equal opportunities denied. Equality is a myth & an aspiration reserved for one social class. I must be a racist.
– Starmer is a rusty dull tool –
Reminds me of a James Brown lyric:
“Like a dull knife…just ain’t cuttin’;
Just talking loud…and saying nothing”
Lies! Damned Lies &………? I have just killed a 70 year old man, but my defence will be that it doesn’t matter because he was soon to die anyway! My actions are statistically insignificant, so therefore they never happened. If you can’t accurately measure causes of death they are irrelevant; does that explain complete lack of testing?
There is only one criteria & value in the capitalist bible so remember, it’s the economy stupid!
Tim Roache’s resignation.
Allegations outlined in the letter include a serious sexual assault, as well as claims that Roache is “a regular and heavy user of cocaine”. In addition to being described as ‘a feature’ of the sexual assault allegation, the letter suggests that Roache’s alleged drug use may have “impacted negatively on his ability to carry out his duties as General Secretary”.
https://novaramedia.com/2020/05/01/tim-roache-resigned-amid-allegations-of-sexual-assault-cover-up-and-a-casting-couch-culture-at-gmb/