Poll by Survation shows far higher numbers of potential ‘Independent Group’ voters defecting from Tories than from Labour
Survation was by a distance the most accurate polling company of the 2017 general election, being the only one to correctly predict the final result – in spite of ridicule from right-wing commentators.
On Thursday, the company revealed the results of its latest poll of Westminster voting intention, which showed Labour above 40% and the Tories trailing well behind – with the hapless ‘TIG’ (‘The Independent Group’ of quitter MPs) barely registering, on just one percent.
But a less widely-seen section of the poll also reveals an interesting aspect to what support exists for the ‘TIG’ – one that will strike a chord with every Labour supporter who has paid any attention to the ‘tiggers’ lack of policies, competence and vision.
The polling section shows the way in which voters for the minority parties – Greens, UKIP and TIG would vote if no candidate from their preferred option was standing in their area. The results are telling:
While five percent of TIG supporters would vote Labour in the absence of a TIG candidate, almost double that – nine percent – would vote Tory.
Put simply, the TIG – or Tinge, after their hopeless launch-day racism – is sucking almost twice as many voters away from the Tories as they can hope to fool into deserting Labour.
Hardly surprising, given that TIG’s absence of policy ideas, clearly ego-driven and self-obsessed MPs and loathing for anything actually approaching change – in spite of their disastrously planned party name – ape the Tories closely and bear no resemblance to the Labour Party that destroyed Theresa May’s majority in 2017 and saw the biggest surge in Labour votes since 1945.
The Survation results were reinforced by a poll published by BMG. The BMG results – which have often been anti-Labour ‘outliers’ – suggested that the quitter group is taking voters from the Tories at almost twice the rate of support it gets from ex-Labour voters.
SKWAWKBOX comment:
Seems the quitters are disliked by everyone except those who prefer their politics vacuous – mainly those for whom even the hapless Theresa May is not quite useless enough.
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About time these squatters were evicted!
Given most would vote LibDem (their natural home) or another (green), it just goes to show their overall irrelevance. However, I am surprised that 1% would vote for them but any further dilution of the LibDem/Green vote is very welcome.
Sorry jaffer, I meant that as a stand alone comment, somehow I’ve attached it to yours.
I think we need to change our attitude to this fringe group and start thanking them for their disloyal ways!
every cloud a silver ………
A lot of undecideds as well though.
It’s great that – currently – it’s the Tories who seem to be suffering across the board from leakage to the ‘other’ parties across the spectrum. But in general, allegiance at the moment is more flaky – volatile – than in ‘norma’l times, as the longitudinal record of polls shows.
The Harbury (Who? What?) poll looks questionable, but there appears to be a overall move towards Labour. Considering the total disarray of the Tories, this is actually a bit latte in coming.
The question for Labour now is how to increase the current moves, particularly given the impending situation of EU elections.
BREXIT PARTY LAUNCH
Nigel’s back and woaded for wabbit.
Will he hoover up any hope the ChUKaTIG’s had of a shred of relevance?
Looks to me David, like the government and opposition are crapping themselves over European elections now Farage has entered the fray. Expect a deal, any deal that stops the European elections from happening. And kiss the second referendum goodbye, even Ken Clark has realised the majority of MPs aren’t going to put their heads above the parapet and throw their careers away.
Is UKIP crapping itself too do you think?
Starting a second party on the same single issue that the party you previously led was built on – while that party still exists – seems pretty close to a declaration of no confidence in them.
Who’ll be more drawn to The Brexit Party than kippers?
Maybe he’s hoping the threat alone will be enough to frighten parliament into action.
I suppose the amount of money committed to the new party and the names of its backers might answer that.
Quite amazing how much free publicity has been given (again) to this ‘anti-establishment’, suited pretender of the City who has taken the EU coin for little effort. The Roderick Spode of the 21st Century, with his Black Shorts. Compare the numbers (including Moggy’s kid sister) with that given to the 6 million who have requested the withdrawal of Article 50.
I see the Moon’s antisemitic…
Oops. I meant antimagnetic, obviously.
You drinking and commenting again, David? 😉
No, went teetotal in 1987 to save pissing away the last smudge of grey matter.
Thanks for rubbing it in though… 🙂
Jeremy, have you made that #awkward admission yet that Labour’s flagship policy of rail nationalisation CANNOT be achieved should we not #Brexit & should we *Remain* in a Customs Union?
And once the Lisbon Treaty lands…
… it’ll be curtains.
Signed… a Socialist ❤️ PC https://t.co/irx4iG0Cgo
No?
… but massive impoverishment of the economy will achieve it?
That’s known as wishful tokenism.
I’ve often wondered what it is that you do for a job RH that makes you cry “impoverishment” when even the most pessimistic predictions based on us walking away without a deal, only view difficulties in the short term.
I have to conclude that you are an MEP.
Oh dear, lundiel – you seem to have missed the news again. The economy has already taken a big hit. The worst response to a devaluation on record.
” difficulties in the short term …. I have to conclude that you are an MEP.”
Those fantasies again! Reminiscent of your various allies – like Dodgy Davis and easy negotiations, the Maybot and ‘piece of piss’ non-agreement, Foxy and his pile of trade agreements with the likes of the Faroe and Israel. Plus, of course, Mr Toad with stuff dreamed up in his own head and Moggy living in the 18th century.
I take it you’ll be backing Raabit (‘Really? Where’s Dover?) as leader?
Great company. Not forgetting the Transport of Delight : Failing Grayling and his record, culminating in imaginary ferries.
Just the mass of incompetent judgement and forecast to inspire confidence!
Nah. I think I’ll stick with the majority of the Labour Party in terms of judgement.
Just answer the question.
There isn’t one. And, the issue is beyond question.
One concern is that the SNP vote is currently holding steady, it seems. The loss of Scotland remains a big problem for Labour.
Labour lost Scotland the day they supported the tories in the Indy ref. If they’d abstained, they’d have been fine, if they’d gone for Independence, the SNP would be fading by now, in an independent Scotland.
But putting England’s needs ahead of Scotland’s, in Scotland, was a suicide note. I doubt Labour will ever reach their previous level of support in a generation.
” the quitter group is taking voters from the Tories at almost twice the rate of support it gets from ex-Labour voters.”
Or, to put it another way, ” the quitter group is taking voters from the Tories at almost twice the rate that Labour is.”
Playing with opinion poll resluts is pissing in the wind: it’s usually a self-congratulation fest, which is pathetic, as every poll result has something for everyone.
There’s only one poll that counts, and spreading the usual pre-election false sense of security will end in tears, as it always does.
Every. Single. Time.
… and the joke is, it was futile move. Opposing independence wiped out Labour thus losing those much-needed seats, but keeping them ‘in the Union’ for the tories to compete for.
OOOps! apologies – posted this in the wrong place.
Not rocket science is it. They left the Labour party because they would have been de-selected at the next election because they preferred the Tory party, so it’s not unexpected that most of their funding and support comes from Tories.