Labour has made major gains on Tories more or less across board of polling companies
Kantar‘s latest poll of voting intention shows Labour making a huge 13% gain relative to the Tories:
Labour 35% (+4%)
Tories 32% (-9%)
LD 11%
UKIP 7%
BMG‘s latest made Labour static – but still gaining four percent on the Tories:
CON: 35% (-4)
LAB: 34% (=)
LDM: 11% (-1
Meanwhile Hanbury Strategy, a new member of the British Polling Council, showed Labour leading the Tories by a distance:
LAB: 40%
CON: 31%
LDM: 8%
UKIP: 8%
GRN: 5%
This means that Labour’s standing across an array of polls is as follows:
Kantar – 3% ahead
Delta – 5% ahead
Survation – 4% ahead
ComRes – level
Opinium – level
YouGov – 1% behind
However, in all of these Labour has made major gains versus the Tories – even in the case of YouGov, which was a outlier in giving the Tories a substantial lead in its previous poll but showed a 9% Labour gain in its latest.
Data for the majority of these polls were taken before Theresa May was forced to turn to Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn for help – and before Labour’s proposed Brexit deal was welcomed emphatically by Irish PM Leo Varadkar.
And before May was forced to go cap in hand to the EU for a further Brexit extension, too.
SKWAWKBOX comment:
Labour’s polling surge at the end of March led the SKWAWKBOX to warn that a new series of media smears was bound to follow – and so it turned out. Since the surge is continuing and smears are the only tactic the Establishment has, watch out for still more.
No wonder the Tories are desperately fighting to avoid a new general election.
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I’d be very wary indeed about the Hanbury poll result. They are not a polling organisation apparently, but a lobbying firm. I’ve never heard of them before, and when I quickly skimmed through the wikipedia list just now – which goes back to the beginning of 2017 – there wasn’t a single poll conducted by them, just as I thought. Turning up completely out of the blue – and I mean that in more ways than one – with a result that puts Labour nine points ahead AND is totally out of kilter with othe polls in recent weeks is, to my mind, more than a little suspicious. And the fact that they have Strategy in their name makes one wonder if this is all part of… er…strategy.
Anyway, the funny thing (not haha) is that I discovered something I probably never would have when I skimmed through the wikipedia list, and that is that immediately after the 2017 list, there’s a new list that’s been started – ie polls that include The Independent Group, and although I only had a cursory look, the yougov/Times polls were doing their bit to ‘promote’ them! At Labour’s expense of course!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2019
PS Someone left a comment on Reddit earlier saying that ‘Hanbury Strategy is a Conservative-led lobbying firm set up by ex-David Cameron advisor Ameet Gill and Brexit campaigner and former British Bankers’ Association director, Paul Stephenson in September 2016.’
So obviously trustworthy then……
You are absolutely right about the smear campaign Skwawkbox. They are really getting desperate so if we have any bad weather over the Summer expect a story about flooding and comments from”a former Labour front bencher” who will say it is all Jeremy Corbyn’s fault because it is well known Jeremy does a rain dance in his back yard every morning.
Although this is my attempt at humour its not really all that far fetched. Just consider what has been said about him to date – Jeremy is simultaneously a Stalinist,Marxist, Trotskyite, pacifist, terrorist supporter,an antisemite, incompetent, not a leader, unelectable, vague, a spy, pro Russian, closet brexiteer. He is also tends his allotment and makes jam – I wonder how he managers to fit it all in LOL!
Came across this today (from the end of February)…… I mean is it possible to go any lower:
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/8530824/oap-beaten-up-in-anti-semitic-attack-in-jeremy-corbyns-constituency/
I have never take any notice of polls when Labour was behind I see no reason to take any when they are ahead.
The good news is that the electorate seems to be leaning more towards Labour. The bad news is that this is because the Tories have lost more support recently than Labour has done – but both parties have shown notable declines since the election.
Your cheers should be one or two, Skwawkbox – not a mathematically suspect three.
Further good news, however, is that Labour seems to be gaining as people turn away from Brexit in terms of the EU elections. Time for seizing the initiative and getting beyond a botched customs union idea.