The latest Ipsos Mori poll contained some remarkable news, as electoral analyst and gambler Mike Smithson pointed out today:
Read that again.
Amongst everyone who expressed a preference to Ipsos Mori, Labour lead the Tories by three percent – just 6 weeks after being, supposedly, 24 points behind when May called the election.
Corbyn began to hack away at that lead as soon as campaigning began. And now it looks, for the first time, like pollsters are discovering what the rest of us have been intuiting.
He has his nose in front.
But – and that’s a big but – when Ipsos Mori factors in expected turnout, the numbers swing by eight percent to give the Tories a five-point lead.
What this means, in essence, is that Labour can remove the Tories next week but everything depends on turnout.
Decisions are made by those who turn up – or in this case, turn out.
There are huge reasons for optimism:
- almost three million people applied to vote in this election who were not previously entitled to
- of those, 2.2 million are under 35 years old – a demographic that favours Corbyn by a considerable distance
- elderly people have been deserting the Tories because of their plans to introduce the dementia tax, to remove the winter fuel allowance from millions of pensioners – and to deprive their grandchildren of free school meals
- millions of people did not vote in 2015, many of whom may choose to vote in 2017 now that they have a genuine choice rather than between two main parties with a similar (and now thoroughly discredited) view on austerity
- leadership approval ratings have transformed in an unprecedented way now that the people have chance to see the real Corbyn instead of just hearing what biased pundits say about him, as journalist Faisal Islam reported:
Turnout is key – but we are not passive spectators waiting to see whether people are as motivated to go and vote as we hope they are.
Momentum’s ‘Election Day Pledge‘ site lets you make a difference – lets you affect turnout. And if enough of us make a difference – that can make all the difference to whether the UK faces hope or despair on the morning of 9 June.
Journalist Paul Mason explains in forceful terms:
What are you doing on Election Day? Can you spare the day or some part of it?
Do you want to see an end to the nightmare of Tory government? If so, then if you possibly can – take the pledge. Give yourself, your family, friends, the young, elderly, vulnerable, poor, the gift of hope.
Sign up to turn up, so others turn out.
The SKWAWKBOX is provided free of charge but depends on the generosity of its readers to be viable. If you found this information helpful and can afford to, please do click here to arrange a one-off or modest monthly donation via PayPal. Thanks for your support so this blog can keep bringing you information the Establishment would prefer you not to know about.
Young voters will make a massive difference to the result. Both my daughters are in their early 20’s, and have told me that everyone they know in their social groups are turning out to vote for Corbyn.
It’s a massive deal to the young. I think, because of their disappointment with the result of the Brexit vote, they now realise they can’t just rely on the older generation to vote in their interests, they have to make change happen themselves.
I’ve just witnessed the Question Time Debate on Sky News.
The problems with the format are obvious in that it doesn’t allow a fair opportunity for the leaders to speak on the same issues or allow adequate comparison. Plus it allows free reign for a biased interpretation at the end.
So for example the mix of questions put to Jeremy didn’t allow him to speak up for the concerns of the elderly and instead allowed the armchair general brigade too much airtime. Jeremy should have used the Nelson Mandela card on links with terrorists but overall he was brilliant and his claim at the end to want to continue was believable.
Yet the SKY news editor claimed that Jeremy was on the back foot and was happy to get away from the cauldron at the end.
That may have been the body language from Theresa May but was not true of Jeremy.
We should all be pressing for more debates and more airtime for Jeremy.
That’s what won it for Trump . He put himself forward and appeared to want the job. That’s what Jeremy is doing : putting himself forward and allowing people to make their own minds up. The comparison with the sulky , robotic and empty vessel that is Theresa May can only point in one direction.
But please Jeremy address the Elderly. They are going to vote and you have to change their minds. Time for new things to say to them…
I recommend increased care allowances , free internet , and certainty on social care , pensions and benefits . Whatever it takes change their minds.
Now that the polls are showing Labour closing fast on the Tories the media are going to start to ignore them. But when the Tories had a massive lead they were all for quoting the polls. I watched the question time Jeremy gave good answers whereas TM was her usual evasive self. I am getting pretty fed up with the IRA questions and whether Jeremy is willing to press the nuclear button. It’s not up to him to do it the Americans have the codes he can’t fire without their say so. So the question is pointless and I like many sane people would not like a trigger happy prime minster. that doesn’t think twice or three or four times before deciding to kill millions of people and destroying the planet for years to come. Is that what these Tory people want really .