If you have suspicions about political polling results, you share them with the SKWAWKBOX. However, the usual suspicion – since 2015 at least – is that they inflate Tory popularity and understate Labour’s.
So a poll that shows a substantial improvement in Labour’s ratings is potentially hugely significant.
One week ago, just after the General Election was called, the Tories were – according to Tory-owned YouGov – running 24 points (48%/24%) ahead of Labour in voting intention.
For the moment, let’s leave aside the issue of whether it’s really credible that almost half the people in the country intend to vote Tory when the Conservatives are a shambles and the Prime Minister is so clearly wooden and remote – even with the help of glove-puppet media.
Today, the Daily Mirror is reporting YouGov’s polling results showing a dramatic change to 45%/29% – still a substantial 16 points, but down by eight percentage points in just a single week. (NB: the Mirror says seven, but it wrongly states that YouGov’s voting intention polling had the Tories 23% ahead last week).
Why?
The crucial difference between last week and this is that the electorate have had a week of seeing and hearing Jeremy Corbyn with less filtering by the mainstream media. Usually, the public’s diet of Corbyn’s actual words and presence is carefully rationed, while we’re force-fed their interpretation of his words and situation like unfortunate foie-gras geese.
Most of the media are still doing their utmost to re-cast Corbyn after every speech or announcement – to ‘re-toxify’ him if you will – but electoral rules have forced them to let the viewing public actually see him in action and hear what he says.
And in just a week, a third of the Tories’ lead – even polling what many feel are unrepresentative samples – disappeared.
Theresa May’s set-piece speeches to tightly-controlled (and tiny) audiences have been derided by Labour supporters – but they are clearly not impressing the general populace either.
Corbyn’s authentic love for being out among people and the warmth with which they greet him and his message are lauded by Labour supporters – but his appeal, now we’re allowed to actually see him – clearly goes well beyond his core support.
No matter how much pundits say otherwise.
The Tories will never admit it, of course, but they’re rattled – rattled enough to have turned to personal attacks just a week into the campaigning and even to spread fake news about him.
Polling can change. Polls can be wrong – any Corbyn supporter probably at least suspects/hopes they are. But that radical a change in so short a period should be a cause for hope and encouragement for anyone who genuinely wants a Labour government – and for a country that needs one.
It also shows that May and her advisers are right to be afraid – and to want to keep her out of sight as much as possible. But it just might be that the public is getting wise to it, in spite of certain journalists’ attempts to portray it as some kind of masterful strategy.
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Blair will I’m sure have access to sheets from doorstep canvassing which will show much more accurate information than You Gov polls. I wondered if this has terrified those that would be terrified of a government who genuinely put UK citizens first and this is why he is canvassing for other parties to win/eroding confidence in a Labour win.
Laura
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You Gov polled 2,000 to get that result and maybe hand picked. GMTV Done one with 156,000 and the result was clear. A Corbyn win by 68% to 28%, And their not run by a Tory either.
Whether you can trust YouGov or not, the ITV poll was hugely flawed in it’s methodology. It’s self-delusion to take this as a serious indication of Labour support.
“hand picked” is a BENEFIT not a flaw is done properly. You have to choose a representative sample of the electorate to get any kind of accurate picture, which is why the ITV poll is useless.
It may be the case that underhand methods are being used by the major pollsters, but unless this can be demonstrated properly, accepting this conspiracy theory as fact gets us nowhere.
All the previous polls that some of us have cited as evidence pollsters get it wrong have UNDERESTIMATED THE TORY/RIGHT-WING VOTE – that is if you regard Brexit as a Right-wing victory.
That isn’t true. A proper poll should be selected randomly and then weighted. It should never be hand picked. YouGov reliance on internet polls is not a great idea either.
I think Tony Blair is hoping Teresa Maynot be wins because Jeremy Corbyn has said he will hold an inquiry over the Iraq war and if there was war crimes committed. he’s running scared.
By the way Keep up the good work Skwawkbox. Ilook forward in the mornings to see wwhat you have found out lol!
If the polls are rigged (quite easy especially YouGov as you have to register to take part) then at some stage they are going to have to start upping the Labour support or appear worthless.
Hopefully the independent TV companies will do more of those big surveys as I don’t think the BBC can trusted to tell the truth. YouGov is run by Tories so can’t claim to be impartial.
Hopefully they don’t. A poll which is open to anyone with no statistical sampling, where individuals can vote multiple times is worse than useless and can only lull us into a false sense of security.
This poll is undoubtedly encouraging viewed in isolation – the problem is that the polling in the rest of the article wasn’t quite so encouraging – for example May’s massive approval rating.
The fact that in reality May and the Tories have been poor does not mean they are perceived to be that way in the wider population. I know quite a few people who think she’s doing a great job in being tough on Brexit and whatnot. Unfortunately a lot of people believe what they read in the Heil and Sexpress. We’ve got to stop believing that our perceptions are shared by everyone.
Actually, the best economic indicator, Consumer Confidence Index went into minus figures this month. Because that’s what ordinary people express, not the economists/psephologists etc.
And when Gordon lost in 2010, it was minus & when DC won his majority in 2015, it was plus.
So, maybe there are actually more just managing or struggling than doing all right. So, one question there-will enough of the former think Jeremy is genuinely on their case & might just change things?
And for those who are just trugging along minding their own business? Well, will the PM find those people either wondering why she’s seeking stability by causing a needless election when she says she represents that and already has a majority? Or, like DC on Europe, find that asking people to positively endorse what they take for granted might be a push too far?
In either case, she could find it harder to get the vote out than she thinks.
Just watched the Tonight program about X PATS in Spain and France!
Not one mention of the Tory Hard Brexit or the instigators of it, Farage then Cameron!
Splitting the Country in half, how proud they must be!
The sooner both PARTIES and those on the RIGHT get their ARSES KICKED in this ELECTION the BETTER!
JC4PM!
Reblogged this on disabledsingleparent.
They did not do that with Miliband, Ashcroft or as he is known Cashhcroft inflated labour and Miliband ability to win, but labour believed it so much anyone saying anything was told to look at Ashcroft polls , he suckered in labour and nuked them. same thing could happen again as labour are so much in need of Polls to be for them.
http://nyebevannews.co.uk/tories-caught-siphoning-education-budget-to-tory-seats/ and this https://www.thecanary.co/2017/04/28/breaking-dark-money-hsbc-won-conservatives-2010-general-election/